Blogs

On the eve of the election, Focaldata in partnership with Prolific can reveal our final seat forecast of the 2024 general election. We find Labour on course for a 238-seat majority, a record-breaking result that sees the party winning 444 seats, based on a 40% share of the national vote (-1.4pp since our last drop). The Conservatives are expected to win in 108 constituencies (-2 since our last drop), based on a 23.2% vote share (+0.2pp).

Today, Focaldata in partnership with Prolific publishes its MRP model of the 2024 General Election. We find that Labour is on course for a 250-seat majority – based on a 41.4% share of the national vote versus 23.0% for the Conservatives. Our forecast leaves the Conservatives with 110 seats, including losses in Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt), Cheltenham (Alex Chalk) and Monmouthshire (David TC Davies). The SNP face becoming the second party in Scotland, with Labour putting on 32 seats.

With an explosion of different polling and forecasting methods in recent years, it can be hard to make sense of the noise. In this Bi_Focal, we take a deep dive into the four public MRPs published during the election campaign, analysing their differences and assessing how they compare to historical results.