Blog/Polling

The headlines

• The country is on course for the closest presidential race since 2004. Our polling finds Kamala Harris leading in five of the seven key swing states, with Donald Trump set to reverse two of Joe Biden’s 2020 wins.
  In direct head-to-head polling (i.e. excluding third party candidates), the race is too close to call, with the candidates tied in the crucial states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Excluding these two states leaves no candidate with an Electoral College majority.
• Harris is narrowly ahead 47-46% in the Trump 2020 state of North Carolina, while Trump is currently on course to flip two Democratic states – Georgia and Arizona. He leads in the former 49-45%, and 46-45% in the latter.

Points of interest

• The ‘Anti-Trump woman’ is Harris’ emblematic voter. Harris leads with women by nine points, whereas Trump leads by four points with men.
• Among likely male voters, Trump’s approval rating is roughly even, with 47% giving him a positive rating and 48% negative. Among women, Trump is underwater by 14 points, with 47% of women in swing states having a highly unfavourable view of the former president.
• While Harris is narrowly ahead by two points across the seven swing states, negative partisanship is driving Democratic support as opposed to support for Harris herself. Stopping Donald Trump is the number one reason Democrats cite for voting for Harris, with 57% of her voters selecting it as one of their main two reasons.
• Trump voters, on the other hand, are much more policy-motivated, with 68% of his voters selecting his policies as a key reason for their vote, which leads comfortably in all states. Just 34% opted for stopping Kamala Harris.

Methodological note

Fieldwork was conducted 6-16 August across seven swing states, with a total sample size of 4,854 voters. Data is weighted according to age, gender, education, ethnicity, population density, past vote and party registration. Likelihood to vote is calculated using a turnout model which uses validated voter panels from the 2020 election to determine the effect of demographics and survey answers on voter turnout.

Data tables

Data tables are available here.