Blogs

A sizeable amount of the variation among pollsters stems from a somewhat existential approach to polling itself — are polls 'nowcasts' of the current moment in time, or are they forecasts of actual voting behaviour if a general election really were held today?

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has a very wide range among pollsters, from 15 points (J.L. Partners) to 27 (YouGov). However, at this month’s local elections, the BBC’s Projected National Vote share pointed towards a single-figure lead for Keir Starmer’s party. So what explains these large gaps, and which source is closest to Labour’s ‘true’ lead?

In this blog, we argue that the culture wars are likely to take on a new tenor as economic pressures - inflation, low growth, employment opportunities - return and fuse with cultural conflicts to give them a sharp, material edge. Over the course of this Bi_Focal series, we'll argue that these issues are - over and above views on race or conspiracy - deeply predictive of populist-right views across Western countries.

This week we’re back in the UK looking at another one of the minority parties -- the Green Party -- and the challenge posed to Labour's left flank. We find that the Greens are attracting a number of those who voted Labour in 2019 - particularly left-wingers disillusioned by Starmer’s move to the centre. But among other groups, there’s much less movement, and the Green Party still has a lot of work to do.