Blogs

Key findings: When comparing AI-powered election media coverage and swing state polling data, Signal AI and Focal Data analysis found that… Harris consistently outperforms Trump in media sentiment in every swing state, but Trump leads in voter polls in three swing states. Perhaps because she’s the lesser-known candidate, Harris is seen as a more polarizing figure across all states. Jobs and the economy emerge as the most polarized issue, while national security and race relations are, at least through the lens of the election, less fraught.

With the Labour government’s focus on increasing economic growth, in this blog post we examine whether there actually is (in Liz Truss’s words) an ‘anti-growth coalition’ within public opinion and whether there is a corresponding ‘pro-growth coalition’. We asked the British public its opinions on economic growth, technological change and human progress to see how these beliefs map – and don’t map – onto existing political divides. We find that growth attitudes form a distinct dimension of political beliefs, separate from traditional left-right economic or liberal-conservative cultural divides. There is indeed evidence of both pro- and anti-growth sentiments, but these cut across party lines. Labour and (to a lesser extent) Conservative voters are the most pro-growth, while non-voters, Reform UK and Green Party supporters show the strongest anti-growth leanings. Occupation also plays a crucial role, with higher managerial and professional workers being the most pro-growth, but skilled manual workers notably anti-growth.

We are delighted to unveil Minorities Report: The Attitudes of Britain’s Ethnic Minority Population, a groundbreaking new paper conducted by Focaldata and UK in a Changing Europe.

Last night, we conducted an exclusive snap poll for Politico on the US vice-presidential debate between the Democratic nominee Tim Walz and Republican nominee JD Vance.

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential race in July saw an effective reset of the election, leading to renewed hopes for the Democrats’ chances of retaining the White House. The Economist’s presidential model prior to Biden dropping out gave the sitting president a 1-in-4 chance of winning the election; Harris now sits at 55%. All polling evidence we have indicates Kamala Harris is a stronger electoral asset than Biden, but their supporters differ in important ways.

Kamala Harris has received a polling boost in some crucial Sun Belt swing states in the first wave of Focaldata polls released since the presidential debate earlier this month.

In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump's performance. Compared to 538's election day polling averages, the Democratic candidate's national lead over Trump was 3.9 points lower than the polls predicted in 2020 and 1.8 points lower in 2016.

The current models of commissioning and running online surveys — either directly using panels or working through traditional market research agencies — are fundamentally flawed. Both models are painful, slow, and manual, and they are holding research and insights teams at comms firms back. These teams are not able to deliver insights at the pace and quality that their clients need.