Blog/Analysis

Rather than comparing noisy crosstabs from different surveys among different sets of respondents, we have used our latest swing-state polling data to compare views of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris with the same set of respondents.

Around 10% of voters in our polls have a favourable view of Harris and a non-favourable view of Biden, compared to just 2% who are pro-Biden, anti-Harris. Looking at the major demographic breakdowns, there are no groups comprising over 2% of the population in which there are more Harris losses than Harris gains. In short, Harris has gained ground on Biden basically everywhere.

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Re-uniting the party

The new nominee has solidified the Democratic coalition following a Biden presidency whose adherents were dwindling to only the party faithful. Our latest polling found that Harris’ biggest gains in approval compared to the current president are not with the strongly-Democratic base, but with those who characterise themselves as ‘not very strong’ or ‘lean’ Democrats. She has gained a massive 28 points with the former group (Biden +44 approval versus Harris +73) and an even larger 36 points with the latter (+44 to +79).

We also see that Harris has re-energised many young people towards the Democrats, particularly young women. While Biden’s presidency saw net negative ratings with 18-34 year olds, Harris has climbed to +27 with young men and +31 with young women, seeing a near 50-point jump with women under 25.

The Harris team should still have cause for concern, however, in that she remains underwater and sees her smallest gains with voters aged 55+, who have the highest turnout across the age groups. Given how poor Biden’s approval ratings are compared to 2020, Harris may well end up going backwards with the oldest Americans in November compared to Biden’s performance last time out.

Likewise, the demographics where Harris sees her biggest gains tend to be less concentrated in swing states. Some of her biggest improvements on Biden’s scores are with Hispanic voters, for example, but the seven key swing states in this election are much less Hispanic than the nation as a whole (only about half as many eligible voters – 8% – are of Hispanic or Latino origin compared to the rest of the country – 15%). Swing state voters are also whiter than average (74% vs 71%), and are marginally more likely to be aged 55+.

The Harris coalition therefore looks less efficient in electoral terms than Biden’s, with a younger, more female and more diverse outlook, perhaps landing somewhere between Hillary Clinton 2016 and Barack Obama 2012. How will this change the campaign’s strategy and policy priorities?

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Back to basics

The issues voters select as the most important differ greatly by partisanship, but we see a surprisingly large difference in priorities between those who have a favourable view of the current Democratic nominee and her predecessor.

Among Biden favourables, there is little separating the top three issues of inflation/cost of living (37%), abortion (36%) and democracy (33%). Among those with a favourable view of Harris, inflation climbs by double figures to 48%, abortion drops to 31% and democracy falls by 12 points to just 21%, replaced in the top three by healthcare (26%).

Immigration (+5), tax and spending (+6) and crime (+2) all also climb in importance, whereas climate change (-9) and gun control (-2) fall.

These changes in salience are partly a function of the Harris electorate taking on board a larger share of Democratic leaners, whose policy priorities match the general public more than those of party activists, but they also highlight the task facing Harris in speaking to a broader audience as opposed to the hardcore Democratic base. The Democratic coalition being less efficient than 2020 means the campaign has to reach out further to secure victory.

The voters giving Harris a hearing are much more focused on typical election issues – being more concerned with inflation than abortion, and the precariousness of the healthcare system as opposed to the health of the nation’s democracy. To win in November, the Democratic campaign will have to reach out to these voters with a clear economic message for working Americans and perhaps focus less on grander themes of democracy. Without it, the Democrats may become yet another incumbent party kicked out of office following recent economic chaos.

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Image of Kamala Harris and supporters by Gage Skidmore