Blog/Analysis

Miami-Dade County, Florida

In 2022, Florida was the first state to surpass 50% of the vote count on election night, by 8pm Eastern Time, so it’s the first proper indication we might have of the election results. Back in 2020, a big swing to Donald Trump in the heavily-Hispanic Miami-Dade county led many to believe that the then-president was on course for re-election.

Florida is very unlikely to return to the Democrats any time soon, but Miami-Dade may be the first real indication of the night as to whether the Democrats will lose ground among Hispanic voters, a particularly difficult group to poll.

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Wake County, North Carolina

North Carolina was not really expected to be competitive at the start of the year, when the Democrats were in defensive mode. However, the race is now considered very close (our final poll of the state had Trump up by just 0.1 percentage points), in no small part due to the gubernatorial race also taking place tonight.

Since a CNN report in September about the numerous disturbing comments made by the Republican candidate for governor, most commentators believe the Democrats will win that race easily. The Harris campaign will be hoping high turnout for the Democrats in that race will see some extra votes going her way.

Biden got 62% in Wake County in 2020, and Nikki Haley approached 40% in the Republican primary earlier this year. Harris will need to win over some Republicans if she is to win North Carolina, so Wake County could be a key indicator as to whether that happens.

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Cobb County, Georgia

Including the suburbs of Atlanta, Cobb County could give us a guide as to how Harris is doing in suburbia, where elections are traditionally won and lost. Biden won by 14 points here in 2020, and Harris will need at least a double-digit win to stand a chance of retaining Georgia at this election.

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Hamilton County, Indiana

Another suburban county, outside Indianapolis, Hamilton was the county which recorded the biggest shift towards the Democrats in Indiana since 2012. Biden kept Trump’s deficit here at just 7 points in 2020, a fraction of Mitt Romney’s 34-point win over Barack Obama in 2012.

While nobody expected Harris to win the state or even this county, the margin here could be a crucial indicator as to how Harris is holding up in the Midwestern suburbs at-large.

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Hidalgo County, Texas

On the border with Mexico, Hidalgo County was 92% Hispanic in the 2020 census. Last time out, Donald Trump cleared 40% of the vote here, the highest share for a Republican candidate from outside the state since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984.

As a border county, Harris’ perceived weaknesses among some voters on immigration may make themselves clear here. If Trump manages to climb to 45% or more this time around, it would not bode well for Democratic chances later in the night (or week) in Arizona and Nevada – two states with large Hispanic populations where concern over immigration was largest in our final swing-state polls.

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Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania

The largest county in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia County is expected to remain heavily Democratic. High turnout here would provide Harris with a helpful boost to her chances of holding the state.

Philadelphia County is also home to one of the highest Puerto Rican populations in the country. Puerto Ricans make up 3.6% of the population of Pennsylvania and a decent proportion live in the city of Philadelphia. After a large backlash to comments made about Puerto Rico at a recent Trump rally, voters from the island may make their voices heard in this county in particular. In an election which could be extremely close and Pennsylvania being the most likely tipping-point state, this group of voters may well decide the next president.

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Waukesha County, Wisconsin

Neighbouring Milwaukee County, Waukesha has been moving towards the Democrats over the last three elections, from a 35-point Republican victory in 2012 to 21 points in 2020. If Harris can keep the deficit to around 20 points, she looks in good shape to win the state. However, anything resembling Hillary Clinton’s 26.5-point deficit in 2016 would not bode well.

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Maricopa County, Arizona

A Romney-Trump-Biden county, Maricopa plays host to the majority of the state’s population. As such, Maricopa is a must-win county for Harris. Biden won here by two points in 2020, but if Trump wins it back, he probably takes the state at large.

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Wayne County, Michigan

Wayne County is Michigan’s most populous, and simultaneously has the state’s highest Muslim population at 8.1%. Any dissatisfaction among Muslim voters (and other groups) over the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict will make itself most loudly heard in this county. The number of votes for third-party candidates here may be higher than expected, and if Harris’ margin over Trump in the county dips below 30%, she may be in trouble.

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Clark County, Nevada

Clark County is home to Las Vegas and most of Nevada’s population, a similar dynamic to Maricopa County in Arizona. The county has gradually moved away from the Democrats since 2012, and Trump managed to keep Biden’s lead to below 10 points last time around (although he still lost the state). If Trump keeps the county moving in his direction and gets Harris’ lead below 7 points, he may be in good stead to pull off a win here.

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